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WGC-Mexico Championship Preview

 

It's the strongest field we've seen all year. 45 of the world's top 50 will be part of the exclusive 65-man field at Mexico City's Club de Golf Chapultepec as it hosts the tournament for just the second time. With the best players from the PGA Tour and European Tour coming together, predicting a winner is not an enviable task. But whatever happens, we can be sure of entertainment.

Before we look at the players, acknowledging the course is unavoidable this week. Recording 7,603 feet at its lowest and 7,835 feet at its highest, Chapultepec has by far the highest altitude of any course on the PGA Tour. It also features the third-longest par-4 on the Tour, with the third hole measuring a scorecard yardage of 528. But not to worry, it's altitude to the rescue off the tee, helping carry players to the highest average driver distance on last year's PGA Tour.

I think we will be seeing some smiling European faces this week (in a Ryder Cup year... just for the record). Despite World No. 1 Dustin Johnson making it an American win at last year's event, Europe boasted four of the top five in England's Tommy Fleetwood & Ross Fisher, Spain's Jon Rahm and Belgium's Thomas Pieters respectively. Having risen to World No. 2 in remarkable fashion, Rahm is understandably favourite to topple Dustin this year. That said, Fleetwood jumps out at me. He may have slipped at a crucial moment in his pursuit of Dustin last year, but his runner-up spot set him on his way to winning the European Tour's coveted Race to Dubai title in a breakthrough season. On the PGA Tour he ranks in at 13th for Driving Accuracy Percentage, 6th in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-The-Tee and overtook Dustin to go 2nd in SG: Tee-To-Green after last week's fourth-placed finished at the Honda Classic. On this course, that's HUGE. Watch out for Tommy.

Of course we can't overlook America's elite (as much as I'd like to) when you have the likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth lining up. JT is fresh off a win in the Honda Classic, but he may not be the only one benefitting from that victory. His best buddy Spieth is, simply put, a competitor. The win took JT above Spieth in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and raised the stakes for both 24-year-olds seeking Hall of Fame status in Tiger Woods-esque fashion. 

I haven't seen a tournament this hard to predict in a long, long time. As much as (and I know I say this every week, but here goes) I hate tipping the favourite, I can't bring myself to look past the favourite in Dustin Johnson. He's just too good. That said, if you're looking for better odds than Dustin's feeble 6/1, then Tommy Fleetwood is 16/1, in red-hot form and suits the course down to a tee... literally. This still makes him fourth-favourite behind Dustin, JT, Spieth & Rahm, and I wouldn't be convinced to part with my money for any of them at 11/1 and below- no matter how good they are. Justin Rose and Alex Noren are 22/1 and 25/1 respectively; great prices for two real dangermen, and Rose's 11 top-tens in his last 12 tournaments make the Englishman my each-way tip.

So there it is. Call me patriotic but I'm putting my faith in Fleetwood and Rose this week.

 

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

 

 

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