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It’s known as the toughest test in golf. Scary, even. Brutal and unforgiving. Oh, and entertaining. You know, so long as you’re not playing. “A difficult golf course eliminates a lot of players. The U.S. Open flag eliminates a lot of players.” said Jack Nicklaus.
I’m letting the stats take the wheel here because, well, they make a great case. So here’s what I’ve found:
Bogey Avoidance
We will look at the more fun stats soon, but the U.S. Open is not a place for mistakes. Neither is Shinnecock Hills. You avoid mistakes first, then you play good golf.
Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose. Top five in Bogey Avoidance on the PGA Tour (in order). Rule out Simpson because (spoiler alert!) he doesn’t have what it takes across the board. Bryson DeChambeau also ranks in at 24th here. Keep that in mind.
It won’t surprise you that the aforementioned top five plus DeChambeau all rank inside the Top-20 for Top-10 finishes this season, all with four or more.
Off The Tee
Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-To-Green and SG: Off-The-Tee. DJ ranks top for both. As Father’s Day approaches, the World No. 1 will undoubtedly swap the “World’s Greatest Dad” t-shirt and mug for “PGA Tour’s Greatest Driver”. Or World’s Great Golfer. I suppose that works too.
Stenson, DeChambeau and Rose all also rank within the Top-20 for both of these stats. However, only Stenson- who tops the list- cracks even the Top-45 for Driving Accuracy Percentage. With tough rough at Shinnecock, this is certainly worth noting.
Get Him to the Green
Stenson tops the list AGAIN… TWICE. SG: Approach-The-Green and Greens In Regulations (GIR) Percentage. The Swede knows how to avoid bogeys, hit fairways, approach the green and get to the green in regulation better than anybody else on Tour.
SG: Approach also looks good for DJ (T12), DeChambeau (17th) and Rose (27th). All of them, along with Rickie Fowler (17th) sit inside the Top-20 for GIR too.
The Picks
You may have noticed that I kept bringing up the same names over and over again (was I too subtle?), and you would, therefore, know that I have my picks locked in.
Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler. Stenson and DJ look the men to beat on the stat sheets, whilst Justin Rose has been tipped to win by the world and his dog. DeChambeau and Fowler are more wildcards, and maybe Fowler is too wild a card, but wouldn’t it just be nice for him to win his first Major straight after getting engaged.
And Finally… Putting
Five picks is greedy, so I had to whittle it down. Fortunately the stats made that part easy too. Only Rose (T10) and DJ (20th) rank inside the Top-50 for putting. And as it turns out, that’s fairly important.
Stenson is outstanding until the putter comes out, but that is a major flaw. DeChambeau's scientific approach could come in handy, but he's a long shot. Rickie, I'm rooting for you, but nice doesn't win golf Majors. If it did, you wouldn't have been edged out by Patrick Reed (Bitter? Me? Never!). I do expect them all to rank highly though.
So that leaves Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose as my picks to win the 2018 U.S. Open.
Written by Joe Carabini
