Great Expectations

Augusta National doesn't exactly present as an opportunity to post low scores. In fact, four of the last five tournaments have seen winners post single-figure scores. And, need I remind you, it was only in 2007 that Zach Johnson won with +1 on his scorecard. And yet, this year, we're all expecting something special from someone special. Why? Because there are too many special players for that not to happen.

Phil Mickelson has three Masters titles and is coming off the back of a WGC win, yet is eighth favourite with the bookies. That sounds crazy... until you see the players with lower odds. You've got Rory McIlroy chasing a career grand slam, Jordan Spieth looking to repeat his -18 2015 win, World No. 1 Dustin Johnson, World No. 2 Justin Thomas, four-time champion Tiger, last year's runner-up Justin Rose and two-time champion Bubba Watson. And that doesn't tell half the story. Oh man, we're in for a treat!

The Big Guns

‘Lefty’ point-blank told us he is chasing fifty PGA Tour wins after his WGC-Mexico win a month ago. Fighting talk from a man who knows how to win at Augusta and has proven himself still capable of winning the big events. At 16/1 it would be a real crowd-pleaser.

Speaking of crowd-pleasers, imagine if Tiger won! Can you imagine it? Of course you can, he's done it four times already. Recent performances from Rory at the Arnold Plamer Invitational, Spieth at the Houston Open and Justin Thomas at the… well, everything, have boosted Tiger’s odds to 14/1.

Lefty and Tiger raised eyebrows by practicing together earlier in the week, but this strikes me as savvy from both men. It’s not just the crowds that will be behind the two legends heading into the tournament; the statistics make for good reading too. Lefty ranks in second and Tiger eleventh for Strokes Gained: Putting, whilst Mickelson is fourth and Tiger fourteenth in Strokes Gain: Approach-The-Green. Quality in these areas will come in handy at Augusta.

Of course Spieth, Rory, DJ and JT simply can’t be ruled out, but if I was a betting man (Me? Betting? Never!) I would steer clear because the prices just don’t warrant a sufficient risk/reward ratio.

You can find last year’s champion Sergio Garcia at 28/1 despite topping the PGA Tour charts for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach-The-Green. I personally feel it’s too much of a stretch for him to go back-to-back, but I felt it was definitely worth dropping that one in there.

English Invasion

NINE Englishmen will be heading to Augusta. Let that sink in.

It will be nice to see amateur Harry Ellis on the big stage. Danny Willett returns following his shock win in 2016 and will be joined by fellow countrymen Matthew Fitzpatrick and Ross Fisher.

Ian Poulter has taken the long road to Augusta. After an heartache at the WGC Match Play he somehow manged last-gasp qualification with a playoff win at the Houston Open.

Moving towards the players who can actually win (sorry lads), we have a two-time runner-up (including last year in a playoff) in Justin Rose, who hasn’t finished outside the top-25 here since 2004 and is in fine form this year. He is, without question, England’s best hope.

That said, I’ve heard Paul Casey’s name thrown around a lot pre-Masters. Three top-10 finished on the trot on this famous course and a recent win at the Valspar Championship… I can see why. Casey is Mr Consistent, but I’ve not sure he’s got the edge to win this tournament. A good bet to place though.

Two names that have barely been mentioned are Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrell Hatton. Both made their Masters debut last year and neither made the cut, but a lot has happened since then. I can’t see Fleetwood being in contention this year, but he deserves more credit than he’s getting. Hatton, on the other hand, has a genuine shot at a top-10 finish.

In Conclusion…

Rose is definitely England’s best chance of a winner, but if you’re looking for big odds I think Tyrrell Hatton each-way is what you’re looking for.

With regards to a winner, I’m going with Phil Mickelson. His form is good, his game suits this course and by-god does he know how to win.

Credit: @PGATOUR - Official Twitter account of the PGA Tour

Enjoy!

Written by Joe Carabini

Joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com