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Wind the clocks back to 2015: Jordan Spieth has two major victories for the year and is yet to turn 22. The hype around the American starlet grows by the second and golf fans are dizzy with prospects of his future. Rory McIlroy is having none of it. The Northern Irishman returns to the scene of his first PGA Tour victory, Quail Hollow, for the Wells Fargo Championship. McIlroy obliterates the field; winning by seven strokes in a record-smashing -21. Praise for Spieth does not disappear, but is now almost always followed by the words "but he's not Rory McIlroy".
Back to the present: Jordan Spieth has just claimed the Open Championship title days before turning 24. Now, aged 24, the American has one single opportunity to become the youngest ever winner of a career grand slam. There's just one tiny obstacle standing in his way... Rory McIlroy at Quail Hollow.
When I'm writing a preview for a tournament, I try to explore a variety of potential winners. I do this because I know that there are no sure things in golf and because there tends to be a fair few players in with a shout for every tournament. However, Rory McIlroy is making this pretty damn tricky for me. If you read my previous blog regarding the Quail Hollow course, you'll know that Rory McIlroy already has two victories on the North Carolina golf course. You'll also know that he has gained more strokes in the rain than any other golfer since 2014 and that we're expecting showers from Thursday through to Sunday. If that wasn't enough to convince you (in which case you're very harsh on poor old Rory), the 28-year-old already has a couple of PGA Championship wins too! Oh, and he lost out in a play-off on the same course in 2012. Oh, and he has the best scoring average on the course in the last five years. OK, point made. Now to try to put together an argument for the rest of the field.
As I said, McIlroy has the best scoring average at Quail Hollow over the past five years. Next in line is England's Justin Rose. The World No. 13 has been in pretty horrific form this year, having not finished inside a top-50 since his runner-up finish at the Masters. However, you can never underestimate the influence of the course. On that note, Phil Mickelson sits third in the Quail Hollow scoring average rankings. The obvious issue with Mickelson is that he's now 47 and this will be his eighteenth tournament of 2017. That's a hell of a lot of golf at his age. Still, this will be his century of major golf tournaments and nobody is writing him off- that says a lot about Phil Mickelson (it will also be Ernie Els's one hundredth major, but you don't hear his name cropping up amongst golf tipsters).
Big drivers will thrive on the Quail Hollow course. Jon Rahm currently has the best average of shots gained off-the-tee on the PGA Tour. This hands him a huge advantage, along with his closest competitor for that title, Dustin Johnson. Staying on the fairways will be critical, and hitting long will certainly provide a much-needed edge. That brings another name to mind: Rickie Fowler. Cobra's Californian is up there with the best off-the-tee. Combine that with four top-10 finishes in his last six events and a 2012 win at Quail Hollow (the aforementioned play-off with McIlroy), and suddenly Fowler looks a good bet for the top-10 in the PGA Championship.
I hate to side with the favourite, it feels lazy and unambitious. Unfortunately, though, McIlroy's combination of success on this course and in this tournament hand him an undeniable superiority. Therefore, McIlroy is my pick for first-place. I do expect Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm to be up there challenging, though. At 55/1, Phil Mickelson would definitely be worth a gamble and I think Rickie Fowler for the top-10 is one of the most likely results of the tournament. On the other side of the coin, I think Jordan Spieth will struggle to keep up. He's obviously extremely talented, but I just think he'll lose too many strokes off-the-tee to make a serious bid for the Wanamaker Trophy. Likewise, I think Jason Day has been lacking that winning-edge of late. The Aussie can't be ruled out entirely, but I don't fancy him to repeat his 2015 PGA Championship victory, or even his second-place finish last year. I can see Hideki Matsuyama having a respectable, if mediocre, result in Charlotte. Probably a top-20 but unlikely to crack the top-10. And, in case you fancy going for something way out there, you'll find 54-year-old Vijay Singh at 400/1. Before you laugh, The Big Fijian has two PGA Championship victories (1998 & 2004) and a 2005 win at Quail Hollow. Something to consider?
Will Jordan Spieth make history? Will Rory McIlroy pull off another major performance? It's all to play for at Quail Hollow Club.
Written by Joe Carabini
