Open Championship week? At Carnoustie? Really? Somebody should've mentioned that.

The "British" Open

Perhaps the most annoying phrase in British golf. Golf returns to its Scottish homeland with the eyes of the world watching, yet Americans still insist on calling golf's oldest major The "British" Open. It's The Open. End of story.

Despite being the home of golf, Scotland hasn't seen much success of late. Russell Knox's recent Irish Open win ended a three year barren spell for Scottish golfers on the European Tour. Stephen Gallacher placed T9 in the Scottish Open at Gullane Golf Club last week, but there's plenty of work to be done. However, in the bigger picture, Britain as a whole stands a very good chance this week.

What are the Chances?

With World No. 3 Justin Rose, 2014 champion Rory McIlroy and course-record holder Tommy Fleetwood leading the chase, we could see a serious run at the title. Rose comes in at second favourite; just ahead of third favourite McIlroy, whilst the bookmakers have Tommy Fleetwood level with Brooks Koepka; the man who narrowly pipped him to this year's U.S. Open title. Tyrrell Hatton and Paul Casey may be outsiders, but they're equal to current Masters Champion Patrick Reed according to some sources.

McIlroy's recent comments suggesting he sees winning another major as more of a bonus than a necessity have served their purpose (at least I assume it's what he was going for) in deflecting some attention away from himself. But as much sway as a Rory interview has, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood have done their talking on the course and, as a result, have got chins wagging.

Britain's Best

As much as I would've loved to use the headline "Fleetwood MacIlroy", I can't in good conscience discuss him over Rose. After picking up three wins and 3 runners-up in 2017, Rose already has one title, 1 third place and a total of seven Top-10s in 12 events this calendar year. Add to that his 2013 U.S Open title (and Olympic gold and two Masters runners-up), and you have an in-form World No. 3 with major-winning experience and the home crowd's support.

If Tommy Fleetwood wasn't popular enough already, his U.S. Open record-equalling 63 on Sunday at Shinnecock Hills provided fans with a much-needed reason to cheer. But a missed clutch putt on the 18th cost him a tournament record and a playoff, and you can bet your bottom dollar he'll be out to put that right this week.

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

Lightning Striking Twice?

Joaquin Niemann will be 19 years, 8 months and 8 days old on Sunday. Victory at the John Deere Classic would make him the third youngest winner in PGA Tour history and the youngest since 1931. Jordan Spieth’s remarkable win at the 2013 John Deere Classic came at the tender age of 19 years, 11 months and 17 days. Rory McIlroy (20 years, 11 months, 28 days) is the only other player since the turn of the millennium to win in the States and not be able to legally tuck into the champagne.

Teenage Sensation

9 tournaments, 5 cuts, four top-10s. WOW. His first tournament as a pro - a 6^th place finish at the Valero Texas Open- saw him finish behind major winners Jimmy Walker and Zach Johnson. Then came a T8 at the Fort Worth Invitational, where he was topped by the likes of Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm. My favourite, though, was his T6 at the Memorial Tournament. Who did he tie for sixth? The previous week’s champion Justin Rose. But the Who’s Who of golfing superstars lying in his wake at T8 is what I love most: Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler.

In truth, the weakened field at the Greenbrier Classic, where he finished T5 last week, provided an obvious opportunity for Niemann and I can’t be the only one who expected him to finish in the top-10. Saying that; I EXPECTED a 19-year-old to finish in the top-10 on the PGA Tour, sounds absurd. But his incredible prolificacy makes the absurd seem… Surd? I don’t know, but I’m rapidly running out of superlatives for this kid.

Niemann’s Chance

This week will be the weakest field (that’s not to say it’s weak) he has faced since turning pro. Despite gaining entry to The Open by finishing the season as No. 1 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking, the Chilean forfeited that exemption, along with the U.S. Open, to turn pro. That means that whilst others have turned their attention to the season’s first major, Niemann is fully focused on victory at TPC Deere Run. Perhaps I shouldn’t be so surprised, then, that he’s fourth favourite (16/1) behind Bryson DeChambeau (10/1), Francesco Molinari (10/1) and Zach Johnson (12/1).

Niemann doesn’t turn 20 until November 7^th, so he has the rest of the season to make history, but topping Spieth’s amazing feat at the same place would be awesome.

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

Jon Rahm was right when he said we wouldn't see a repeat of last year's "unique week" at the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open. Ballyliffin Golf Club provided a stern test but also rewarded great shots, and we saw plenty of great shots throughout the week. From the tournament's top-3 all shooting final-day eagles on the par-5 4th to Edoardo Molinari's hole-in-one at the 14th, the Irish crowds were not disappointed.

Thursday to Saturday

Jon Rahm opened with a +2 74 which opened and closed with double bogeys before recovering to 1-under with a Friday -3 to make the cut. New Zealand’s Ryan Fox and France’s Matthieu Pavon led the way at -8 heading into the weekend. On Saturday, Erik Van Rooyen followed up Friday’s -7 with a -6, featuring six front-nine birdies before 9 consecutive pars, to reach -14 total and take the lead going into the final round. Behind Van Rooyen were Fox and Joakim Lagergren on -10.

Tournament host Rory McIlroy never really got going, shooting 70-73-72-71 for a 1-under week. Graeme McDowell's clubs did finally show up (I don't think I need to tell you that story again), but his level-par week makes the missed Open Qualifying look all the more costly.

Title Challengers

With Van Rooyen firing +2 and Lagergren +3 on Sunday, the title was up for grabs. Jon Rahm’s Saturday 67 gave him an outside chance, but all hope looked lost after a triple bogey at the second. Then came seven birdies and an eagle that would have been enough for the title had he not dropped those three shots so early on. Fellow Spaniard Jorge Campillo made a charge up the leaderboard with two eagles en route to a -7 and -13 for the week, but he couldn’t manage a critical birdie at the last that would’ve tied the lead.

Russell Knox Socks off Fox

Sometimes the headlines write themselves, such as when Russell Knox outfoxes Ryan Fox. Both players were outstanding on the final day. In fact, some might even say Mr Fox was fantastic. Knox entered Sunday two off Fox, so when Fox bogeyed the first Knox smelled blood. The Scot eagled the fourth… Only for Fox to do the same. A birdie at the sixth levelled things up at the turn before Knox went birdie-bogey-birdie at between 10 and 12. Fox hit back with 3 birdies in a row between 11 and 13 but immediately gave one back with a birdie at the 14^th. Knox, now one off, picks up another birdie at 15 before Fox fights back again with his own birdie at 17.

It all comes down to the 18^th for Knox. 40 feet from the hole, putter in hand, for the birdie... Nails it! Back to the clubhouse to watch on as the leader knocks his approach to 15 feet… And misses. Fox’s putt lips the cup and forces a playoff by a matter of millimetres.

The first playoff hole and Knox approaches to an eerily similar position. 40-odd feet from the hole. The commentator jokes “He knows how to putt from there”. Now it’s Fox’s turn, and he approaches to an almost identical spot to the one he missed from last time. 15 feet from the hole. The commentator does not joke “He doesn’t know how to putt from there”. Knox stands over his ball and strokes it true as can be. It’s rolling… It’s rolling… It’s in! Twice in a row from range for Knox! Can Fox avoid making it twice in a row himself? 15 feet for the win… Lips the cup… And misses. Again.

A sympathetic reaction from Russell Knox, but he’s dancing inside. It’s not all bad news for Ryan Fox, though, as he takes perhaps the best consolation prize on Tour: Open qualification. He’ll be joined at Carnoustie by Zander Lombard and Andy Sullivan, who finished T6.

Russell Knox - What's in the Bag?

Driver: PING G400 LST

3-Wood: PING G400

5-Wood: Cleveland Launcher FL

Hybrid: Cleveland Launcher DST

Irons: Srixon Z 745

Wedges: Cleveland RTX-3

Putter: Scotty Cameron Tour Only Newport 2 NB

Golf Ball: Srixon Z-Star XV

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

With the final round of Open Qualifying wrapped up, we turn our attention to the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at Ballyliffin Golf Club, where Rory McIlroy plays host to a host of big names. Reigning champion Jon Rahm shares the favourite tag with McIlroy, although the Spaniard has been quick to oust any talk of a repeat of last year's "Unique week", when he shot a tournament record -24 264.

Irish Incentives

The European Tour's fourth Rolex Series event of the year will offer added incentives, with a $7million purse, increased Race to Dubai points, increased Ryder Cup points and three Open Championship places up for grabs.

The beautiful Donegal coastline will be on show along with a links course that will challenge players in every department. McIlroy believes it is one of the toughest links courses in the world so we're expecting it to make for great viewing.

In the Hunt

With such a tough course and so much up for grabs, we can expect to see the best rise to the top. The added incentives mean added pressure, so psychology could come into play in a big way this week. We all know that this has a major effect on McIlroy; if he gets it right then he has the ability to win by a huge margin, but it's too 50/50 for me so I don't think the joint-favourite tag is deserved. Rahm, on the other hand, is one of only two men with multiple Rolex Series victories (Alex Noren's win last week put him in the exclusive club) and would be the obvious choice to retain his title.

Graeme McDowell joins Rahm and fellow Spaniard Rafa Cabrera Bello on the tee after being forced to withdraw from the Open Qualifying event this week due to a lack of clubs. GMac's bag was lost in transit by Air France so that means he needs to secure one of the three spots either this week or next week at the Scottish Open. The host will be accompanied by Matthew Fitzpatrick and Thorbjorn Olesen, whilst other home favourites Shane Lowry and Padraig Harrington will no doubt have the place rocking if either can replicate past wins in the tournament (2009 and 2007 respectively).

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

Le Nasty National

Le Golf National took centre stage as the French par-71 course hosted the Open De France less than three months before it is due to host the Ryder Cup. World No. 2 Justin Thomas made the trip over in preparation for the September showdown, and after experiencing the brutality of the course first-hand, said he "can't imagine" how the course has the "potential to play in September" and believes all players will be glad of the match-play format maybe leaving high scores less exposed than a stroke play event. This may sound scathing, but with just 14 of the 159 players in the field posting sub-par opening rounds, the evidence is right there.

Before the Weekend

Defending champion Tommy Fleetwood posted a double-bogey on his second hole and never really recovered. He went 74-73, missing the cut at +5 along with Rafa Cabrera-Bello. After opening with -3 to share second, Graeme MacDowell shot two double-bogeys and a quadruple on a horrific Friday 77. Despite his comments on the difficulty of the course, Thomas managed consecutive rounds of 1-under 70 along with fellow American Julian Suri. Jon Rahm also opened with 70, but improved to 69 on Friday. Sweden's Marcus Kinhult stole the show on Friday with a 65 to top the leaderboard at -6.

The Weekend

On Saturday, Marcus Kinhult moved to double figures with a 4-under 67 to reach -10 for the week, whilst England's Chris Wood occupied second after quietly going 70-68-67 for -8 total. Sergio Garcia and Alex Noren, meanwhile, soared into contention despite slow starts. Garcia's Saturday 64 took him to -7 for the week, whilst Noren shot 65 to go from +3 to -3. Rahm held fourth at -6. The only non-Europeans in the Top-10 were Suri and Thomas at T5 with -4.

Europe vs. America

Kinhult fluffed his lines big time, halving his score to -5 on the final day. That left the door wide open, but he wasn't the only man to stutter. Garcia opened with a triple-bogey and closed with a double for +3 and Rahm fell to +1. Chris Wood was level par at the 15th tee before bogeys at the 15th and 17th saw him drop two shots to finish one off the winner. On the flip side, a superb -6 round meant Russell Knox grabbed a share of second.

American Julian Suri was 4-under for the day and -8 for the tournament at the 18th. Holding out with a par would have handed him top spot, but he found the water en route to a double-bogey. That meant that Alex Noren's -7 was enough for his 10th Tour title. As Ryder Cup captain Thomas Bjorn said: A man for Sundays! No doubt Bjorn will be happy to see a European hold out to beat an American at Le Golf National.

Alex Noren - What's in the Bag

Driver: Callaway Rogue Sub Zero

Fairway Wood: Callaway Rogue

Hybrid: Callaway Apex

Irons: Callaway Apex Pro 16

Wedges: Callaway Mack Daddy 4

Putter: Odyssey O-Works #1

Golf Ball: Callaway Chrome Soft X

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

The Form of His Life

On May 26th I ventured to Wentworth Club for the Saturday of the BMW PGA Championship. A certain Rory McIlroy was -12 heading into the weekend after a flawless -7 65 the previous day. All eyes on the fan favourite.

Francesco Molinari was -7 and in good shape, but still a mere afterthought to McIlroy. The Italian didn't like this, so he shot a flawless 66 as Rory stuttered to a 71. Fans began breaking off from Rory to follow Molinari at an alarming rate. Admittedly this may have had something to do with Rory already hitting two spectators. But the 35-year-old was totally unfazed by the attention as he carded birdie after birdie with this incredible air of grace about him.

Molinari went bogey-free again on Sunday to claim the title in the year's first Rolex Series event.

From ecstasy to heartbreak, the following week saw him miss out on top spot by a single stroke at his home tournament; the Italian Open. However, he showed the same degree of class in defeat; sending the home crowd wild with a superb long birdie putt at the last.

Molinari's Maryland Magic

After a solid T25 at the U.S. Open, the form horse hopped across the pond for the PGA Tour's Quicken Loans National. It seemed a strange decision not to compete in the Open De France at Le Golf National given his Ryder Cup hopes, but it's fair to say it was the right decision.

Stealing the spotlight from Rory McIlroy is one thing, but from Tiger Woods? No chance. No way.

Tiger burst into life with a 65 on Friday, whilst his fans burst eardrums with every birdie. Tiger followed this up with a 68-66 weekend for a highly impressive -11.

Molinari? Oh, he made 65 on Friday too. Then he did it again on Saturday. Then he shot 62 on Sunday. -11? That's nothing, try -21.

The Molinari Way

Sure, plenty of players go through good spells of form. The difference with Molinari is simply the way in which he wins. He's only carded two bogeys in each of his wins at the BMW PGA Championship (-17) and Quicken Loans National (-21) and his runner-up at the Italian Open (-21). None of these bogeys have come on the same day either. Compare this to Alex Noren's 8 bogeys and one double-bogey as he won at Le Golf National, and you can see why Molinari's steady, sure-handed approach makes him a lethal weapon in Team Europe's arsenal on that course this September.

The Stateside win will not earn him any Ryder Cup ranking points, but he's certainly won some brownie points in Captain Thomas Bjorn's eyes!

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

Le Golf National

Where else could we possibly start? The Ryder Cup venue plays host to the oldest National Open in Continental Europe this week, with the September showpiece very much in everybody's mind. However, inflated Ryder Cup qualification points and a whopping $7,000,000 purse (courtesy of its new status as a Rolex Series event) means this isn't just a recon mission for Ryder Cup hopefuls; a lot is at stake at Le Golf National.

The Albatross course is built for 'stadium golf'; perfect for viewers. There will be plenty to view, too, with a challenging setup from first to last. Plenty of water, slick greens with minimal fringe and undulating fairways mean accuracy is critcal. The wrong spin or bounce half an inch in the wrong direction and forgiveness really isn't on the cards.

The Field

It's very rare that Americans turn their attention to the European Tour, especially when Tiger Woods is in action on the PGA Tour, but that is exactly what's happened. Why? Well, the Ryder Cup is one reason. But France also undoubtedly boasts the better field this week. World No. 2 Justin Thomas has hopped across the pond for the week, joining the likes of Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia, Alex Noren and reigning champion Tommy Fleetwood.

Fleetwood, Rahm and Thomas are unsurprisingly favourites, with form horses Thorbjorn Olesen and Andy Sullivan forcing their way into pre-tournament contention too. Unfortunately Francesco Molinari is over in the States for the Quicken Loans National (a trade for Justin Thomas, I can only assume), and I'm not entirely convinced older brother Edoardo Molinari will be leading Europe's charge for a pre-Ryder Cup upper-hand in quite the same way. But you never know!

Favourites in France

Sergio Garcia's T12 at the BMW International Open last week could be a sign of a return to form, but he's still being overlooked by many. A good result here would be useful in his pursuit of a Ryder Cup spot.

For the past five years, the player topping the bogey avoidance list has topped the leaderboard at this tournament, so it's worth looking at the men who make the least mistakes. Two-time winner Graeme McDowell (2013, 2014) is thirteenth on that list for the European Tour. He's also a Vice-Captain for Team Europe, so whilst his best golf may be behind him, a strategic approach on a course he knows well makes him a huge each-way shout at 60/1.

Can Fleetwood go back-to-back? Can McDowell defy the odds for his hat-trick? Will Sergio soar once more?

So many questions, but who has the answers? We'll find out come Sunday.

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

Careless Casey Concedes Championship

With the Ryder Cup very much at the forefront of any golf discussion now, I'm afraid that Paul Casey's Sunday slump is simply more interesting than Bubba Watson's impressive victory. It sounds harsh, but it's true. A Saturday 62 put Casey four strokes clear heading into the final round, but a Sunday 72 handed Bubba a three-stroke victory. Casey's collapse did cost him his third PGA Tour title, but the T2 finish was enough to sneak inside Team Europe's automatic qualifying spots. That suddenly begs the question: Do we want Paul Casey at the Ryder Cup?

To sum him up, Casey only has one win on the PGA Tour since 2009 (this year's Valspar Championship), yet the Englishman has not slipped outside the World Top 20 since stepping inside it with a runner-up at the 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship. Two years inside the World Top 20, but not a single day inside the World Top 10. And does anybody remember how that Deutsche Bank Championship runner-up finish came about? That's right, he conceded a three-stroke lead on the final day to hand the title to Rory McIlroy.

He is Mr Consistent, delivering Top-20 after Top-20. But in the Ryder Cup you don't get Top-20s. You get first or you get last. You win or you lose. Unfortunately for Casey, he has a tendency to not win... Especially when the pressure is on.

Elementary, My Dear Watson

From a man who can't play under pressure to a man who seemingly can only play under pressure: Bubba Watson. Picking up his third Travelers Championship win, Watson shot a Sunday 63 (matching his Friday 63) to go -7 for the day and -17 for the tournament. Stewart Cink, Beau Hossler and J.B. Holmes (that's right, Watson beat Holmes) shared second with Paul Casey at -14. The win made Bubba the first three-time PGA Tour winner of 2018, adding to his WGC-Match Play and Genesis Open victories. Emphasising his position as Casey's polar opposite, Bubba is so incredibly sporadic in his form. His WGC-Match Play win came a week after a T66 and a week prior to his T5 the Masters, before going T57-T44-MC and then winning again at the Travelers. He also hadn't gone better than T35 in six tournaments before winning the Genesis Open.

Other Notables

There were some incredible shots at TPC River Highlands, but there's only one place to start: James Hahn's third round slam dunk hole-in-one. Hahn's ball didn't touch the turf on the Par-3 11th as it soared off the tee, rattled the flagstick and nestled in the cup. If you haven't seen it yet, look it up!

Jordan Spieth's victory-clinching hole-out bunker shot at the 72nd in last year's tournament provided one of the PGA Tour season highlights, and apparently he's a big fan of the bunkers in Cromwell. It wasn't quite so dramatic, but his bunker hole-out at the 6th en route to an opening round 63 put plenty of smiles on faces.

From shots to scores, Rory McIlroy finished T12 with -11. That's all good and well, but staying sub-par every day (64-69-69-67) is the big takeaway for him there. Jason Day tied Rory's score and also went sub-par every day. Last week's U.S. Open winner went ten strokes better than he did at Shinnecock Hills, but his -9 was only good enough for a T19. Spieth faded away after Thursday to a -4 T42 and Justin Thomas fell to T56 after a +3 final round left him at -2 for the week.

Bubba Watson - What's in the Bag

Driver: PING G400 LST

Fairway Wood: PING G

Irons: PING iBlade (2 iron), PING S55 (4-PW)

Wedges: PING Glide 2.0

Putter: PING PLD Anser

Golf Ball: Titleist Pro V1x

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

The last man to win back-to-back U.S. Opens was Curtis Strange in 1988-89. Brooks Koepka repeated that feat at Shinnecock Hills, in a tournament that certainly kept the "Strange" theme alive.

Snub-Par

Brooks Koepka finished as No. 1 at +1, Tommy Fleetwood No. 2 at +2, Dustin Johnson No. 3 at +3, Patrick Reed No. 4 at +4, Tony Finau No. 5 at +5 and Xander Shauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Henrik Stenson & Daniel Berger T6 at +6. Strange, right? But that's just the start.

Controversy

So nobody broke par over the course of the tournament. And of course, that was due to the course. The opening day was an absolute horror show. England's Scott Gregory shot a 92 on the par-70 in his first Major as a professional. However, it was Thursday's marquee group that stole the unwanted headlines as Rory McIlroy went 10-over, Jordan Spieth went 8-over and Phil Mickelson got round in 7-over.

Rory and Spieth did dramatically improve on Day 2; shooting par and +1 respectively, but missed the cut along with Tiger Woods (+10), Jason Day (+12), Sergio Garcia (+14), Jon Rahm (+15) and a whole host of big-name players. Mickelson, however, did manage to make the 8-over-par cut and, thus, prolong his misery. But many still feel that Lefty shouldn't have finished the tournament. Celebrating his 48th birthday, Mickelson caused uproar on Saturday as he jogged after a ball and hit it whilst moving to prevent it rolling off the green. The inevitable calls for disqualification fell on deaf ears as the USGA decided a two-stroke penalty would suffice. This left the birthday boy with a sextuple-bogey 10 for the hole, an 81 for the round and +16 for the tournament.

The USGA faced serious backlash for a lot of issues over the course of the week- including the Mickelson issue- but course management was, without question, the pick of the bunch. Sure, the wind provided a reasonable excuse on Thursday. Friday then saw some more respectable scores (although the bar wasn't set too high), but when so-called "Savage Saturday" rolled around there was simply no hiding and the organisation were forced to apologise for laying out a near-unplayable course. Pin positions were all over the shop and players may as well have been putting on conveyor belts as ball after ball failed to stop rolling. Players, fans and pundits alike united against the USGA. No, we were not entertained.

The Finale

Everything else aside, congratulations to Brooks Koepka. The tournament will be remembered for the controversies and likely branded something along the lines of Shinnecock-up Hills, but Koepka deserves a lot of credit. To win a U.S. Open is something, but to win back-to-back U.S. Opens is something else. He knew even-par would be enough down the stretch and that's exactly what he did. He got the job done.

That said, did you see Tommy Fleetwood?! Wow! The Englishman shot a -7 63 to surge towards the top of the leaderboard and ultimately miss out on top spot by a single stroke. That round equalled the best ever at a U.S. Open, putting himself alongside names like Vijay Singh, Justin Thomas and, of course, Jack Nicklaus. He sat outside the Top-20 at +9 after a Saturday 78, yet finished ahead of World No. 1 Dustin Johnson and Masters Champion Patrick Reed as he claimed the runner-up spot.

Foremost Picks

Maybe it wasn't the tournament we'd all hoped for, but I said prior to the tournament that players had to avoid mistakes before they could think about playing good golf. On that note, Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose jumped out at me. On Thursday-Friday Rose and Stenson shot 71-70 to keep themselves hanging around the top of the leaderboard. DJ, meanwhile, was on -4 heading into the weekend and leading the way. Unfortunately Rose closed with 73-73 and Stenson with 74-71, but both finished inside the Top-10 as predicted. DJ's three bogeys on Sunday's back nine cost him dearly as he fell to +3 for third place. Still, not a bad showing by any means.

Brooks Koepka - What's in the Bag?

Driver: TaylorMade M4

3-Wood: TaylorMade M2 Tour

3-Iron: Nike Vapor Fly Pro

Irons: Mizuno JPX 900

Wedges: Titleist Vokey SM7

Putter: Titleist Scotty Cameron Tour-Only T10 Select Newport

Golf Ball: Titleist Pro V1x

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com

It’s known as the toughest test in golf. Scary, even. Brutal and unforgiving. Oh, and entertaining. You know, so long as you’re not playing. “A difficult golf course eliminates a lot of players. The U.S. Open flag eliminates a lot of players.” said Jack Nicklaus.

I’m letting the stats take the wheel here because, well, they make a great case. So here’s what I’ve found:

Bogey Avoidance

We will look at the more fun stats soon, but the U.S. Open is not a place for mistakes. Neither is Shinnecock Hills. You avoid mistakes first, then you play good golf.

Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose. Top five in Bogey Avoidance on the PGA Tour (in order). Rule out Simpson because (spoiler alert!) he doesn’t have what it takes across the board. Bryson DeChambeau also ranks in at 24^th here. Keep that in mind.

It won’t surprise you that the aforementioned top five plus DeChambeau all rank inside the Top-20 for Top-10 finishes this season, all with four or more.

Off The Tee

Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-To-Green and SG: Off-The-Tee. DJ ranks top for both. As Father’s Day approaches, the World No. 1 will undoubtedly swap the “World’s Greatest Dad” t-shirt and mug for “PGA Tour’s Greatest Driver”. Or World’s Great Golfer. I suppose that works too.

Stenson, DeChambeau and Rose all also rank within the Top-20 for both of these stats. However, only Stenson- who tops the list- cracks even the Top-45 for Driving Accuracy Percentage. With tough rough at Shinnecock, this is certainly worth noting.

Get Him to the Green

Stenson tops the list AGAIN… TWICE. SG: Approach-The-Green and Greens In Regulations (GIR) Percentage. The Swede knows how to avoid bogeys, hit fairways, approach the green and get to the green in regulation better than anybody else on Tour.

SG: Approach also looks good for DJ (T12), DeChambeau (17^th) and Rose (27^th). All of them, along with Rickie Fowler (17^th) sit inside the Top-20 for GIR too.

The Picks

You may have noticed that I kept bringing up the same names over and over again (was I too subtle?), and you would, therefore, know that I have my picks locked in.

Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler. Stenson and DJ look the men to beat on the stat sheets, whilst Justin Rose has been tipped to win by the world and his dog. DeChambeau and Fowler are more wildcards, and maybe Fowler is too wild a card, but wouldn’t it just be nice for him to win his first Major straight after getting engaged.

And Finally… Putting

Five picks is greedy, so I had to whittle it down. Fortunately the stats made that part easy too. Only Rose (T10) and DJ (20^th) rank inside the Top-50 for putting. And as it turns out, that’s fairly important.

Stenson is outstanding until the putter comes out, but that is a major flaw. DeChambeau's scientific approach could come in handy, but he's a long shot. Rickie, I'm rooting for you, but nice doesn't win golf Majors. If it did, you wouldn't have been edged out by Patrick Reed (Bitter? Me? Never!). I do expect them all to rank highly though.

So that leaves Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose as my picks to win the 2018 U.S. Open.

Written by Joe Carabini

joe.carabini@foremostgolf.com